Ukrainian exporters may need to find markets for over 11 mln t of corn outside the EU
Ukrainian exporters may have to find alternative markets for more than 11 million tons of corn outside the European Union in the second half of the marketing year, according to Spike Brokers.
Since October 2025, Ukraine has exported 10.7 million tons of corn, down from 11.5 million tons during the same period of the previous season.
In February, the main buyers of Ukrainian corn were Turkey with 920,000 tons, Spain with 492,000 tons, Italy with 365,000 tons, the Netherlands with 280,000 tons and Egypt with 236,000 tons.
At the same time, Ukraine’s total remaining export potential for March–September is estimated at about 15 million tons.
According to Spike Brokers, the European Union has traditionally been the key market for Ukrainian corn. In the 2025/26 season, total EU corn imports are forecast at 18.8 million tons, nearly 2 million tons less than a year earlier. As of March 1, EU countries had already imported 11.8 million tons, leaving about 7 million tons of potential demand until the end of the season.
Currently, the structure of EU corn imports is as follows: Ukraine — 37%, the United States — 30%, Brazil — 26%. Under favourable market conditions, Ukraine’s share could rise to around 40%, but even in that case, EU demand by the end of June is unlikely to exceed 3 million tons.
“Under these conditions, Ukrainian exporters will have to find markets for more than 11 million tons of corn outside the EU, which increases the importance of Mediterranean, Middle Eastern and North African markets in the second half of the marketing year amid rising geopolitical instability,” the brokers said.
Over the past week, corn prices on a CPT Odesa basis declined from $213 to $210 per ton.
