Farmland Unsown in Ukraine in Spring of 2022, Crop Production Fall: Forecasts and Analytics
Since russia's invasion on 24 February, Ukraine has lost many precious lives of its citizens, a substantial amount of infrastructure and industrial facilities, numerous enterprises and agricultural machinery. However, we are also losing the cultivated lands. This severely affects food security not only in Ukraine but also in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa.
We see that it has to be estimated how much farmland will not be sown in Ukraine in 2022 because of the invasion of russian occupiers. Latifundist.com sourced the data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, regions' authorities, open sources and our own projects Sowing Online and Harvest Online. Besides the expected areas, which will not be sown this season, we have added forecasts of 75%, 50% and 25% reduction. Meaning, how much crop and land we would lose if 75%, 50% and 25% of cropland in a particular area was to be heavily attacked, and it would be impossible to complete spring sowing campaign there.
Spring crops planting campaign scenarios in Ukraine in 2022, based on the amount of farmland accessible
Grain and leguminous crops yield calculations based on the area of land to be harvested (calculations done from 2021 yield data). We recognize that the results may be lower, hence we will provide more accurate data in due course.
Yield calculations for industrial crops (soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, sugar beet) based on the area of land to be harvested (calculations done from 2021 yield data). We recognize that the results may be lower, hence we will provide more accurate data in due course.
An excel spreadsheet containing the total area sown and crop production volume (analytical calculations are available in the document) can be downloaded here.