World grain stocks raised by 20 mln t

The forecast for world grain stocks by the close of the 2020 season has been raised by 19.4 mln t since July to just over 847 mln t, but still down nearly 16 mln t (1.8%) from their opening levels, FAO reports.

"The upward adjustment since July is mostly on account of much larger corn inventories that are forecast to be accumulated in the United States, where this year’s production prospects have improved considerably compared with earlier expectations. As a result, total coarse grain stocks at the global level are now projected at 395 mln t, some 24 mln t higher than the level anticipated in July but still 20 mln t (4.8%) below their opening levels," the report says.

By contrast, the FAO forecast for world wheat stocks has been lowered by nearly 5 mln t since July, to 273.6 mln t, putting this season’s inventory level at 6 mln t (2.2%) above the previous season but still almost 10 mln t short of the 2017/18 record.

This month’s downward revision is mostly triggered by forecast cuts for ending stock levels in several major exporting countries, in particular, the Russian Federation, due to smaller production prospects than were earlier anticipated.

While world wheat inventories by the close of seasons in 2020 would still show an increase from their opening levels, this is mainly on the expectation of another sharp rise in inventories held by China which would more than offset anticipated declines in a number of major exporting countries. Total wheat stocks in China are currently set to reach an all-time high of 129 mln t, some 9.5 mln t (7.9%) above their opening levels.

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