IGC put world grain production record high in 2021/22

International Grains Council (IGC) experts project the world grain production in the 2021/2022 season at 2,287 mln t.

Analysts expect grain production to rise by 62 mln t or 3% next season, including new highs in wheat and corn.

Increased food, feed and industrial uses are seen lifting total consumption by 54 mln t YoY, to 2,286 mln t. At 609 mln t at the end of 2021/22, global stocks are projected to be unchanged YoY. Including reduced shipments of wheat and barley, global trade is seen declining by 6 mln t YoY, to 410 mln t.

IGC experts revised upward the world wheat production forecast for 2021/22 by 15.4 mln t, up to 790 mln t, 2% higher than the previous season's level (774 mln t). At the same time, analysts reduced the forecast for global wheat exports in 2021/22 by 6 mln t to 184 mln t.

Wheat production and export projection for 2021/22:

Country Harvest, mln t Export, mln t
Argentina 20.3 (+3.1) 14.2 (+2.7)
Australia 25 (-8.3) 17.5 (-3)
Canada  34 (-1.1) 24.6 (-2.1)
EU 136.8 (+12.4) 30.1 (+1.2)
Kazakhstan  13.6 (-0.7) 7.5 (+0.2)
Russia  76.9 (-8.5) 34.1 (-4.8)
Ukraine  27.2 (+1.7) 19 (+1.5)
USA  51.1 (+1.4)  24.6 (-2.2)

At 609 mln t at the end of 2021/22, global stocks are projected to be unchanged YoY. Including reduced shipments of wheat and barley, global trade is seen declining by 6 mln t YoY, to 410 mln t. World wheat stocks are expected at 304.3 mln t, 12 mln t higher YoY (2020/21 forecast: 292.3 mln t).

Wheat production in Ukraine and worldwide (click for full resolution)

As of Mar. 24, staple grains export from Ukraine made up 34.45 mln t. Since the start of 2020/21, grain export shipment is 22.58% lower YoY.

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