Brazil 2021/22 soybean output projected 15 mln t lower

The 2021/22 Brazilian soybean production was cut by 15 mln t to 125.47 mln t by Conab in its February Crop Report released on February 10, 2022, Soybean and Corn Advisor reports.

A severe drought in southern Brazil during November, December and early January resulted in lower production estimates for Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. In the hardest-hit areas of those states, soybean yields were down as much as 60-70-80% with some fields not even harvested since the yields were so poor, the message reads.

The nationwide soybean yield in Brazil is now estimated at 3.09 t/ha (46.0 bu/ac) which is down 0.39 t/ha (5.8 bu/ac) from their January estimate of 3.48 t/ha (51.8 bu/ac). The 2021/22 soybean acreage was increased 190,000 ha (469,300 ac) compared to January to 40.58 mln ha (100.2 mln ac). The 2021/22 soybean acreage is now up 3.5% compared to last year.

Brazil's soybean production is now down 9.2% compared to last year or 12.68 mln t. The soybeans were planted in a timely manner raising expectations for a record-large crop, but starting in November, hot and dry conditions developed in southern Brazil and persisted during the critical pod filling period. At the same time, record or near-record high temperatures in southern Brazil increased the moisture stress on the soybeans.

For Brazil's corn production, Conab only made modest changes in the 2021/22 Brazil corn estimate. The corn production was trimmed 0.56 mln t to 112.34 mln. The first corn crop production is estimated at 24.43 mln t, while the safrinha corn production is estimated at 86.05 mln t and the third corn crop is estimated at 1.85 mln t.

Related: From Field to Port: Corn. Production, Storage and Profitable Sale

Brazil's 2021/22 corn production is estimated to be up 29% compared to last year or 25.2 mln t. The 2020/21 corn production in Brazil was severely impacted by a record drought across much of the production area.

La Niña is being blamed for Brazil's adverse weather both last growing season and this growing season. La Niña conditions are expected to moderate in the coming months, but it could still result in irregular rains in southern Brazil and the potential for early frosts in southern Brazil which could impact the safrinha corn in the states of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul.

Learn more: The Little Girl: Will La Niña Send Grain Prices Higher?

Soybean production in Ukraine in 2021/22 totalled 3.43 mln t, the crop yielded 2.68 t/ha on average. Corn output reached 40 mln t using the average yield of 7.47 t/ha.