Grain export from Ukraine may half in 2024: Kernel CEO Osypov

Since russia's withdrawal from the grain deal in mid-July, it has destroyed 280,000 tons of Ukrainian grain in the Danube ports, Financial Times reports.

In the last 12 months, Ukraine, a producer of half of the world's sunflower oil and 10% of wheat exports, has exported around 35 million tons of grain via the Danube.

However, how long Ukrainian producers will be able to cover the extra costs of these alternative routes has become a pressing question, especially after russia left the grain deal.

"There is no point in growing crops for Ukrainian farmers anymore, as they only lose money," says Kernel CEO Ievgen Osypov.

He projects that high costs will cut Ukraine's grain production and cause exports to halve from last year's level in 2024 to around 35 million tons.

Viktor Berestenko, president of the Association of International Freight Forwarders, says that exporting a ton of grain to Egypt via the Danube costs about USD 116, compared to about USD 69 before russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian growers and exporters believe that the Danube's capacity can be expanded even further.

"The advantage of the Danube lies in offering plenty of loading space and diversified infrastructure. This also means that Ukraine's exports do not depend on russia," says NIBULON CEO Andriy Vadaturskyi.

On the night of September 13, russia launched the 5th since the start of the month kamikaze drone attack on the Danube ports.  The export infrastructure of Izmail and Reni was damaged. Trucks in the waiting area of one of the ports burned. At least seven people got injured.