USDA raises Ukraine’s wheat, corn crop forecasts but cuts export estimates

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its August forecasts for wheat and corn production, exports and ending stocks in major producing countries for the 2026/27 marketing year.

Wheat

According to the August forecast, global wheat production in 2026/27 is expected to reach 819.3 million tons, down 0.67 million tons from the July estimate of 819.97 million tons. Global exports are forecast at 212.71 million tons, down 0.34 million tons, while ending stocks are projected at 273.25 million tons, up 0.41 million tons.

For Ukraine, the USDA raised its wheat production forecast to 25.4 million tons from 24 million tons in July. At the same time, the export forecast was cut to 13.5 million tons from 14.5 million tons, while the ending stocks estimate was raised to 4.8 million tons from 2.53 million tons.

For the United States, the USDA slightly lowered its wheat production forecast to 41.66 million tons from 41.81 million tons in July. The export forecast remained unchanged at 21.09 million tons, while ending stocks were cut to 19.51 million tons from 19.66 million tons.

Corn

According to the August forecast, global corn production in 2026/27 is expected to reach 1.29888 billion tons, up 1.79 million tons from the July estimate of 1.29709 billion tons. Global exports are forecast at 210.48 million tons, up 0.6 million tons, while ending stocks are projected at 274.66 million tons, down 0.60 million tons.

Ukraine’s corn production estimate was raised to 31.8 million tons from 30 million tons in July. Meanwhile, the export forecast was cut to 22 million tons from 23 million tons, while the ending stocks forecast was raised to 4.86 million tons from 2.06 million tons.

For the United States, the USDA raised its corn production forecast to 406.75 million tons from 406.42 million tons in July. The export forecast was increased to 83.19 million tons from 81.28 million tons, while ending stocks were reduced to 41.98 million tons from 45.46 million tons.

The USDA’s forecasts for major corn exporters for the 2026/27 marketing year are as follows:

Analysts at the USDA left China’s corn production forecast unchanged at 307 million tons. However, the import forecast was cut to 5 million tons from 6 million tons, while the ending stocks forecast remained unchanged at 165.13 million tons.