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Global wheat production forecast for 2020/21 cut by IGC
6 May 2020, 08:37
Infographic guide Ukrainian Agribusiness 2018/19
The forecast for global wheat production in 2020/21(July-June) is estimated at 764.4 mln t, 4.1 mln t under the March forecast (768.5 mln t), the IGC report reads.
Global wheat export projections for the next season were reduced to 176.7 mln t, compared to 179.9 mln t in the March report.
According to the report, world wheat carryover stocks are expected at 288.7 mln t (283.2 mln t in the March report).
Wheat stocks forecast was adjusted for the following countries:
- Australia: revised upward to 6.4 mln t vs. 5.7 mln t in the previous report;
- EU: cut to 12.4 mln t vs. 13 mln t;
- Russia: revised upward to 11.2 mln t vs. 9.8 mln t;
- Ukraine: cut to 1 mln t vs. 1.2 mln t;
- China: revised upward to 133.6 mln t vs. 133 mln t;
- India: revised upward to 28.5 mln t vs. 27.7 mln t.
As a reminder, wheat export shipment from Ukraine as of May 4 reached 19.08 mln t, 33% or 4.74 mln t more y-o-y.
The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine and grain traders signed a document which provides for a limit of wheat export from Ukraine in 2019/20, i.e. until June 30, 2020, at 20.2 mln t. The Government says it is ready to curb exports in case the limit is exceeded.
