Wheat and barley yield forecast pegged 7% lower from 2019
In the 2020/21(July 2020-June 2021) season, cereal grains production in Ukraine is estimated at 71.5 mln t, 5% lower from the completed season(July 2019-June 2020) (75.1 mln t). In particular, the wheat harvest is expected at 25.3 mln t, or 11% lower YoY (2019/20: 28.3 mln t), and the barley harvest is anticipated at 7.5 mln t, 16% lower from the previous season, the APK-Inform analysts project.
"Early grains production decline in the coming season is attributable to the reduction of sown areas, as well as to unstable weather conditions, which led to lower crop yields and the loss of most winter crops in the southern regions. Thus, the wheat yield is estimated at 3.89 t/ha (-7% on 2019/20), barley yield is estimated at 3.18 t/ha (-7%)," explained Viktoria Rozhko, an analyst at APK-Inform.
Export potential of early grains, according to the analyst, is also pegged lower from the finalized season. Thus, the export of wheat from Ukraine is estimated at 17.3 mln t (-16%), barley 3.5 mln t (-29%).
In the 2019/20 season, grains, pulses and flour export from Ukraine totalled the record 57.2 mln t, 6.8 mln t higher YoY (2018/19: 50.4 mln t).
