UGA grains and oilseeds production forecast reviewed up to 100 mln t

A new record harvest of cereals and oilseeds is expected in Ukraine — 100 mln t, 1.6% higher from the previous harvest in the 2019/20 season (98.4 mln t). Export in the current season is pegged at 61 mln t (2019/20: 62 mln t), the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) analysts forecast.

In its July report, the Association improved its 2020/21 harvest forecast from 97.1 mln t to 100 mln t compared to June. The forecast for grain and oilseeds export in the new marketing year was revised upward from 58.2 mln t to 61 mln t.

"The upsurge in the forecast of the gross yield and exports was driven by the improved forecast of barley and corn production, which may set a new absolute record for Ukraine both in production and export," the analysts say.

UGA specialists improved their forecast for corn crop up to 38.9 mln t (the previous forecast was set at 36.8 mln t), exports to 33 mln t. Last marketing year, Ukraine's corn harvest set a record of 35.2 mln t, while exports totalled 30.3 mln t. According to the report, the forecast for wheat harvest remained unchanged at 26.8 mln t, exports also at the same level at 18 mln t. In 2019/20, wheat harvest reached a record 28.2 mln t, exports 20.6 mln t.

Related: New Harvest 2020: First Grain Quality Results

The forecast for the current season's barley production was also increased from 7.6 mln t to 8.2 mln t, exports from 3.8 mln t to 4.2 mln t. Last year's barley harvest was also record-breaking at 9 mln t, exports reached 5 mln t.

"The crop forecast is quite consistent with the established trend of recent years when the gross yield of grains and oilseeds exceeded 90 mln t. In the medium term, the UGA forecasts yield growth to 113 mln t, and exports under these conditions at 75 mln t," analysts say.

As a reminder, grain and leguminous crops harvesting in Ukraine progressed to 27 mln t as of July 30. The campaign has covered 7.2 mln ha or 48% of the planned areas.

Follow the updates with the Harvest Online 2020 project. The project is developed in partnership with Soufflet Agro Ukraine.