Analysts revised downward global sugar surplus forecast for 2020/2021

An analyst at Green Pool lowered its global sugar surplus forecast for the current 2020/21 season, primarily as it trimmed estimates for key producers India and Thailand, Reuters reports.

The company also lowered its surplus forecast for 2021/22 as consumption is set to rise with the Covid-19 pandemic receding and with China consuming more sugar and less high fructose corn syrup (HFCS).

It is reported that the 2020/21 surplus is expected at 0.5 mln t, raw value, versus a late January forecast of 3.28 mln. Green Pool sees the 2021/22 surplus at 4.08 mln t versus, 0.37 mln t less than its late January estimate.

“The current Thai crop (20/21) appears worse than in 19/20 (itself something of a disaster). India’s production is not as robust as we had earlier forecast, with our current estimate at 31.6 mln t (tel quel), but still higher than last year’s 27.2 mln,” Reuters writes.

Green Pool said world sugar production in 2020/21 is seen rising 8% to 186.72 mln t, from the low levels of 2019/20, when the analyst estimates the market recorded a deficit of 12.05 mln t.

Global sugar consumption in 2020/21 is forecast to edge up to 185.47 mln t, a gain of just 0.3%, partly due to COVID-19 impacts.

In 2021/22, Green Pool said consumption is expected to rise to 187.36 mln t, a 1% year-on-year increase.

“We only forecast Brazil producing 35 mln t (tel quel in 2021/22), but we are aware this could rise if the relativity between the prices of sugar and ethanol continue to strongly favour sugar,” the analyst said.

Earlier reported that sugar export from Ukraine dropped 10x YoY in January 2021.

Sugar industry in Ukraine (click for full resolution)

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