FAO analysts suggest small rise in world cereal production in 2021
In an early outlook for 2021 crops, FAO analysts project a small rise in world cereal production in 2021. While most of the wheat crop in the Northern Hemisphere is still dormant and Southern Hemisphere countries are yet to plant, FAO’s preliminary forecast for global wheat production in 2021 points to a third consecutive annual increase to 780 mln t, a new record.
"The bulk of the growth is expected to come from the European Union, where wheat plantings are forecast to recover from last year’s low level, expanding by more than 5% in 2021," the report reads.
Coupled with an expected upturn in yields, the European Union’s wheat production in 2021 is anticipated to rebound by almost 9% to 137 mln t, analysts say.
Production in the United Kingdom is forecast to recover from the previous year’s low and surpass 14 mln t, on larger plantings and higher yields.
In the Russian Federation, the effects of dry weather conditions in the early part of the growing season have diminished production prospects for the 2021 wheat crop compared to the bumper outturn of the previous year. Although beneficial snowfall in January partly abated these concerns, production is, nevertheless, forecast to decline by 7 mln t in 2021.
"In Ukraine, owing to overall conducive weather with sufficient snow that prevented crops from freezing, wheat production is expected to rise moderately to a near-average level in 2021," analysts note.
In Asia, production increases to above-average levels are forecast in several major producers, including India and Pakistan, underpinned supported by government support and beneficial weather. Wheat crop conditions in China (mainland) are also favourable and production in 2021 is expected to remain near average. Production outlooks in Near East Asian countries are, however, mixed, as abnormal dryness in several countries has cut yield prospects.
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In the United States of America, unconducive weather conditions since October 2020 has curbed yield prospects and despite a forecast expansion in total plantings, production in 2021 is set to remain close to last year’s output of 50 mln t. In Canada, with the bulk of the wheat crop produced in the summer and yet to be planted, production is officially projected to decline marginally to 33 mln t on lower yields.
Regarding the production of coarse grains, the 2021 crops are to be harvested in the next months in the Southern Hemisphere countries but are yet to be planted in countries north of the equator. In South America, maize outputs in Argentina and Brazil are forecast at well above-average levels in 2020 on expected large sowings, although less-than-ideal weather has curtailed yield and overall production prospects.
The latest forecast by FAOput the world cereals production 17 mln t higher from the previous report in February to 2 761 mln t, now pointing to a 1.9% increase year-on-year.
