Global cereal stocks forecasted at 808 mln t by end of 2021: FAO

Global cereal stocks ending in 2021 are forecast to fall 1.7% below their opening levels, to 808 mln t, following a 3.3 mln t reduction from last month’s forecast, FAO reports.

"This downward revision to stocks, on top of raised utilization, lowers the global cereal stock-to-use ratio from 29.6% in 2019/20 to 28.4% in 2020/21, a seven-year low," FAO analysts comment.

With increased feed utilization estimates reducing the anticipated build-up of wheat inventories in China, the forecast for global wheat stocks has been cut by 8.0 mln t since last month to 284 mln t; still 2.8% above their opening levels. By contrast, at 341 mln t, the forecast for global coarse grains stocks has been raised by 4.5 mln t month-on-month, mostly on upward revisions to corn inventories in India and the USA.

However, global coarse grains stocks are still forecast to contract by 5.9% from their opening levels, largely due to a 23 mln t drawdown in corn inventories, most of which is concentrated in China and the USA.

In the year 2021, grains and pulses production in Ukraine is projected 13% higher YoY, at 73.8 mln t.

Grains and pulses stocks in Ukraine as of March 1 dropped to 15.88 mln t, 11% or 2 mln t lower YoY (17.88 mln t).

Infographic Report 2019/20

Download a comprehensive analytical report on the Ukrainian agricultural sector in 2019/20