Grains production projected 13% higher YoY: APK-Inform

In the year 2021, grains and pulses production in Ukraine is projected 13% higher YoY, at 73.8 mln t, the APK-Inform analysts estimate.

The gross yield of wheat is expected to reach 27.5 mln t (+10%), barley 8 mln t (+2%) and corn 35.7 mln t (+19%).

"The positive outlook is driven by relatively good wintering conditions for winter crops, favourable conditions for sowing spring crops, and price trends during the 2020/21 season which support the interest in major crops high," analysts mark.

Given the current trends in domestic grain consumption, the projected production volume next season has the potential to form the export potential of the Ukrainian grain market at 54.2 mln t, 19% higher than the 2020/21 season (45.5 mln t) and just 1% less than the record 2019/20 (54.9 mln t). Wheat export potential is forecasted at 19.8 mln t (+13%), barley at 4.3 mln t (+1%) and corn at 29.5 mln t (+27%).

Export of Ukrainian ag commodities (click for full resolution)

"Despite positive early expectations, production and trade risks remain quite high. In particular, the drought conditions that have become customary in Ukraine's climate may well have a negative impact on early crops in the final stages of the vegetation period and on late crops during the crop formation period. From a trade perspective, both competitive risks in key markets and non-tariff barriers remain high for Ukraine", analysts add.

After the current relatively mild season, a grain harvest of around 74 mln t may be another test of strength of the domestic logistics system.

Sixteen regions in Ukraine started spring crops sowing as of April 1. Given forecasts of an average winter wheat yield of 4.1 t/ha, wheat production in 2021 is expected to exceed 27 mln t.

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