Turkey's wheat and barley production forecast lower for dry weather conditions: USDA FAS

Dry weather conditions in Turkey between April and June in many regions led to lower wheat and barley production forecasts for 2021/22, USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reports.

FAS analysts forecast wheat production in Turkey at 16.5 mln t in 2021/22 vs. the original forecast of 17.6 mln t in April. This change is due to unexpectedly dry weather conditions between April and June, causing yield and quality losses, especially in the Southeast and Central Anatolia regions.

The marketing year 2021/22 wheat planting is forecast to decrease to 7 mln ha, down 100,000 ha compared to the 2020/21 season. Winter wheat planting, which finished in December 2020, was nearly 100,000 ha below the previous year, mainly due to planting preference for barley in unirrigated areas or selection of other crops (differing by region), the report reads.

The Turkish domestic wheat consumption forecast is 22 mln t in 2020/21, up 1.4 mln t compared to the MY 2020/21 year. Despite a modest crop, competitive wheat prices have stressed feed millers while barley supply is limited, analysts mark. The feed sector is purchasing all classes of wheat at competitive prices.

For 2021/22, Turkey’s wheat import forecast is 11.25 mln t, a record high level, due to demand from the domestic market, stable demand from wheat product manufacturers, and a smaller harvest than expected. Total wheat exports from Turkey for 2021/22, including wheat products, are forecast at 6 mln t, down 300,000 t from 2020/21, assuming more limited domestic production will partly affect pasta, bulgur, and other wheat product exports.

The barley production forecast for 2021/22 is down to 4.5 mln t from an original forecast of 7.7 mln t, due to mass yield losses in the Southeast and Central Anatolia regions related to the rain deficit.

Barley consumption forecast for Turkey in MY 2020/21 is projected at 7.5 mln t due to the sharp decrease in production than last year. This forecast assumes that 2.75 mln t of barley will be imported for usage in the feed sector.

The corn production forecast for 2021/22 is 6.8 mln t, due to favourable weather conditions in late May and June after planting which caused better yield expectations.

In MY 2021/22, Turkish domestic corn consumption is projected at 9.3 mln t, up to 500,000 t more than last year, assuming increased demand from the feed sector and starch industry.

Corn trade is slower compared to last year due to high domestic production in MY 2020/21. Turkey’s corn import forecast is 2.8 mln t to meet demand from the feed and starch sector in 2021/22.

As a reminder, the wheat production forecast for Russia in 2021/22 was also reduced.

In its latest report, the USDA put the wheat production forecast for Ukraine at 30 mln t, 0.5 mln t above the June report.

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