Wheat production forecast for Russia revised downward on drought

The SovEcon agency cut its 2021 wheat harvest forecast for Russia to 76.4 mln t from 82.3 mln t, due to official statistics on areas under winter crops and the adverse effects of weather factors on the crop, Refinitiv Agriculture writes.

On Friday, Rosstat announced that the area under winter crops is 15.6 mln ha, not 16.8 mln t, as forecasted by SovEcon. The estimate of the spring wheat area was 13.1 mln ha.

SovEcon reported hot and dry weather in July, which negatively affected the potential yield of spring wheat and, in some cases, winter wheat, as another factor for the decrease in the yield forecast.

The agency noted that winter wheat yields were below forecasts in Central Russia and the Volga region. The forecast for spring wheat yields declined in the Volga region, especially in the eastern parts of the region where the lowest soil moisture reserves in a decade were registered.

IGC in its July report reduced the forecast for production and export of wheat from Russia in 2021/22.

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