Global wheat trade forecast put 2% higher YoY in 2020/21
World trade in cereals in 2020/21 is forecast to reach 467 mln t, up only marginally from April but representing a year-on-year expansion of 5.9 percent, FAO reports.
The analysts left the forecast for global coarse grains trade in 2020/21 (July/June) largely unchanged since last month and still they point to a robust increase of 9.2% above the 2019/20 level, mostly due to likely record purchases of corn and barley by China.
Global wheat trade in 2020/21 (July/June) is forecast to increase by 2.0% from the 2019/20 estimated level, supported by year-on-year expected increases in imports by China, Morocco, and Pakistan.
"Following the 2020/21 (July/June) expected trade expansion to a record level, wheat trade in 2021/22 could contract by 1.8%, to 185 mln t. Early indications point to smaller purchases by China as well as Morocco and Pakistan, following a year of high imports and good domestic supply prospects," the report reads.
On the export side, analysts add, larger shipments anticipated from Argentina and the EU, supported by increased harvest expectations, are seen to be offset by reduced sales from Australia, Canada and the Russian Federation, on lower production prospects, as well as from the USA due to tighter supplies from low carry-over stocks and greater expected feed use. The Russian Federation, nevertheless, is expected to remain the world’s leading wheat exporter in 2021/22.
As of May 6, spring wheat was 98% planted in Ukraine, corn 46%. Spring crops planting progressed to 58%. Grains bulk yield in Ukraine in 2021 is forecasted 8.8% higher YoY by the National Scientific Center Institute of Agrarian Economics.