IGC improved world grain production forecast for 2021/22
Based on the global grain supply and demand assessment for 2021/22, IGC experts forecast global grain production at 2,301 mln t, 9 mln t above the previous forecast of 2,292 mln t in May.
Analysts noted that the 2021/22 global grain production outlook is supported by higher forecasts for corn (+7 mln t mth/mth, mainly China), oats and minor grains (millet/triticale).
Mainly linked to record crops of wheat and corn, world total grains production in 2021/22 is projected to grow by 85 mln t, to a new peak of 2,301 mln t.
Given the lower carry-in and higher use, stocks are expected 2 mln t bigger m/m, at 597 mln t.
"Larger predicted wheat imports in Near East Asia help to boost the total grains trade projection by 3 mln t mth/mth, to 418 mln t. Largely because of smaller shipments of corn (the first drop in 13-years), world total grains trade in 2021/22 is expected to be modestly lower y-o-y, at 425 ml t," the report reads.
Nevertheless, with food, feed and industrial uses all predicted at records, only a slight increase in carryover stocks is envisaged, leading to a drop in the all-grains stocks-to-use ratio to an eight-year low of 26%, analysts add.
Staple grains export from Ukraine dropped by 21.8% in the 2020/21 season.
In the 2021/22 season, the wheat export potential is forecasted at 19.8 mln t (+13%), barley at 4.3 mln t (+1%) and corn at 29.5 mln t (+27%).