Record global grains trade forecast outweighs 2020/21 level

FAO’s latest forecast for global trade in cereals in 2021/22 has been lifted by 2.2 mln t since November to a record 480 mln t, 0.7% higher than in 2020/21.

Reportedly, world wheat trade in 2021/22(July-June) is now seen to expand from last year’s level by 2.2%, driven by robust demand, especially from the Near East to compensate for reduced domestic harvests.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

"On the supply side, expected larger sales by Argentina, Australia, the European Union and Ukraine, benefitting from ample exportable surpluses following good harvests, outweighed foreseen reductions in shipments from Canada, the United States of America and the Russian Federation, where sales are likely to be limited by a rising export tariff."

FAO’s forecast for global trade in coarse grains still points to a likely contraction of 1.3% in 2021/22 from its record level in 2020/21, underpinned by a foreseen fall in maize and barley trade, despite a 1.1-mln-t upward revision this month. The bulk of this revision rests on higher anticipated barley purchases by Turkey incentivized by reduced production and expectations for barley to replace wheat and maize in feed rations.

Previously reported that Egypt's GASC made a sizable wheat purchase in the latest tender. The country's state grain buyer booked Romanian, Russian and Ukrainian wheat.

Since the start of 2021/22, staple grains export from Ukraine has increased by 17.6% to 24.19 mln t.

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