December USDA: world wheat production 2021/22 projected 2.6 mln t up

Wheat production in Ukraine
Mature wheat in a field in Ukraine
Photo by: Latifundist.com

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its December report projects the world wheat production in 2021/22 to reach 777.89 mln t, 2.61 mln t above the November report figure (775.28).

Experts project the world wheat export at 205.47 mln t, 2.31 mln t higher from the November projection. The global ending stocks are also revised upward by 2.28 mln t, from 275.8 mln t to 278.18.

The USDA world ending stocks projection. Source: Karen Brown Twitter

The US wheat production in 2021/22 is expected at 44.79 mln t, flat from the November report. Wheat export projection is cut by 0.55 mln t to 22.86 mln t. Wheat ending stocks in the US are estimated at 16.28 mln t, 0.41 mln t up from the November report data.

The USDA projection for wheat production in Ukraine in 2021/22 remains unaltered, at 33 mln t. USDA analysts improve their estimate of wheat export from the country, to 24.2 mln t, 0.2 mln t above the previous report. Wheat ending stocks in Ukraine are estimated at 1.41 mln t.

Learn more: TOP 14 Wheat Exporters From Ukraine in 10M 2021

Wheat production in the largest exporting countries is projected at 322.85 mln t, 4.45 mln up mth/mth.

The projection for the major wheat exporters in 2021/22 (December vs. November report indicators, mln t):

Country Production Exports Ending stocks
 EU 138.7 (+0.3) 37 (+0.5) 9.93 (+0.19)
 Russia 75.5 (+1) 36 10.23 (+0.25)
 Ukraine 33 24.2 (+0.2) 1.41
 Australia 34 (+2.5) 25.5 (+2) 4.53 (+0.95)
 Canada 21.65 (+0.65) 15 5.14 (+0.65)
 Argentina 20 13.5 2.34 (–0.2)

China's wheat 2021/22 projection in the December USDA report:

  • production: 136.95 mln t, 0.05 mln t
  • import: 9.5 mln t, 0.5 mln t
  • ending stocks: 141.17 mln t, 0.15
  • exports: 1 mln t

Wheat prices in Ukraine reduced ahead of the USDA December report release.

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