Ukraine wheat follows down world prices in anticipation of higher WASDE

The prices of Ukrainian wheat have declined in the wake of falling prices offered on international markets, Barva Invest analysts report.

Wheat prices have kept falling. March Chicago futures fell by USD 0.14 per bushel, European wheat prices fell by EUR 4.75/t and Black Sea wheat by USD 6.75/t. Improved weather conditions for harvest in Australia and higher production estimates in Argentina ahead of the new WASDE report add to the pressure on quotations.

"Market participants' average expectations for today's USDA report agree on a modest increase in the forecast for global and U.S. ending stocks," the message reads.

Analysts at Barva Invest marked that the French Ministry of Agriculture and Food increased its estimate of wheat ending stocks from 3.2 mln t to 3.5, and the estimate of exports from the EU was reduced to 9.2 mln t compared with 9.4 in the previous forecast. Besides, Korea plans to purchase 65 thou. t of wheat in a new tender.

The Rosario Grain Exchange reportedly upped its estimate of the Argentine crop to 22.1 mln t, up from 20.4 in its previous forecast.

According to experts, the Ukrainian corn market remains inactive amid the uncertainty about future price prospects.

"Exchange trading in corn was slack and basically did not change at the end of the day. Market participants are traditionally cautious before the release of the WASDE report. For corn, market expectations are more reserved about today's report than they are for wheat. Average market expectations are for a slight decrease in ending stocks in the U.S., but an increase in world ending stocks," analysts comment.

The United States announced sales of 1.84 mln t of corn to Mexico, of which 754,000 t will be delivered next season. Korea plans to buy 69,000 t of corn at the next tender.

Learn more: TOP 14 Wheat Exporters From Ukraine in 10M 2021

Previously reported that 11.5% Ukrainian wheat for the December loading period was traded USD 5 per ton down from Friday, Dec. 3. 12.5% wheat dropped by USD 4 per ton.

FAO projects the 2021/22 global trade in cereals 0.7% higher YoY.

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