February USDA: world wheat production forecast for 2021/22 cut back by over 2 mln t
The forecast for the world wheat production in the 2021/22 season was revised downward by 2.18 mln t, to 776.42 mln t, by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) analysts in the February report (January report: 778.6 mln t).
Experts project the world wheat export at 206.69 mln t, 2.29 mln t up on the January projection (204.4 mln t). The global ending stocks are revised downward by 1.74 mln t, from 279.95 mln t to 278.21.
The US wheat production in 2021/22 is expected at 44.79 mln t, flat month-to-month. Wheat export projection is cut by 0.4 mln t to 22.05 mln t. Wheat ending stocks in the US are estimated at 17.63 mln t, 0.54 mln t up from the January report data.
The USDA projection for wheat production in Ukraine in 2021/22 remains stable, at 33 mln t, for the third consecutive month. USDA analysts cut their estimate of wheat export from the country by 0.2 mln t, at 24 mln t. Wheat ending stocks in Ukraine are estimated at 2.01 mln t, 0.4 mln t up.
Learn more: TOP 14 Wheat Exporters From Ukraine in 10M 2021
Wheat production in the largest exporting countries is projected at 323.55 mln t, flat mth/mth.
The projection for the major wheat exporters in 2021/22 (February vs. January report indicators, mln t):
| Country | Production | Exports | Ending stocks |
| EU | 138.9 | 37.5 | 9.88 |
| Russia | 75.5 | 35 | 10.63 |
| Ukraine | 33 | 24 (-0.2) | 2.01 (+0.4) |
| Australia | 34 | 25.5 | 4.53 |
| Canada | 21.65 | 15.2 (+0.2) | 3.14 (-2) |
| Argentina | 20.5 | 14 (+0.5) | 2.08 (-0.63) |
China's wheat 2021/22 projection in the February USDA report:
- production: 136.95 mln t
- import: 9.5 mln t
- ending stocks: 142.17 mln t, ▲1
- exports: 0.9 mln t
As a reminder, wheat export from Ukraine in 2021/22 was limited to 25.3 mln t. The Memorandum of Understanding was signed by the Agrarian Ministry and grain market participants. The Government also considers milling wheat export from the country. The decision is reported to be taken in January.
As of Feb. 9, wheat export from Ukraine made up 17.34 mln t, 31% up YoY.
