Weather-related factors to press down wheat supply in European market — forecast

In the 2020/21 season, the supply of wheat from European countries will decline markedly — by around 32.3% YoY, the NBU Expert Platform analysts forecast.

"Drought in early spring significantly damaged the winter wheat crops in the UK and Romania, and heavy rains during the sowing period adversely affected the yield of the key European exporter — France," said the analysts.

According to their forecasts, the negative impact of weather conditions will cut wheat yields by at least 6% to 5.6 t/ha. Moreover, as a result of prolonged quarantine, grains sown areas decreased by 3% YoY.

Learn more: Wheat Exporters from Ukraine in 1H 2020

"In 2020/21, a significant drop in European wheat production is expected (according to a FAO forecast by 19.3%, USDA 12.5%)," the report reads.

The UGA cut its forecast for the bulk yield of grains and oilseeds in 2020/21 from 96.7 mln t to 95.6 mln t (-1.1%), export from 58.4 mln t to 56.3 mln t (-3.6%) in connection with adverse weather conditions for late crops development in some regions of Ukraine.

The Economy Ministry of Ukraine cut its projection for corn and sunflower production in Ukraine: the bulk yield of corn is expected at 33 mln t, sunflower at 14 mln t.


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