IGC cut world grains production in 2021/22 largely for drought

The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts the world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2021/22 at 2,295 mln t, 3.7% up YoY. However, the month-on-month forecast was revised downward by 6 mln t (June f'cast: 2,301 mln t), mainly because of drought-reduced crops in North America, including the forecast for wheat, barley and oats.

Largely because of a sharp rise in maize output (+74 mln t y/y) to a new peak, but with wheat at a record as well (+15 mln t), global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2021/22 is expected to be the highest ever.

Including increases for food (+12 mln t y/y) and industrial uses (+7 mln t), but with the biggest rise for feeding (+37 mln t), world consumption is predicted to climb by 3%, to an all-time high of 2,295 mln t. The outlook for consumption is down by 4 mln t mth/mth.

"As an upward adjustment for maize only partly compensates for cut-backs for wheat and barley, world stocks at the end of 2021/22 are placed 3 mln t lower mth/mth, at 594 mln t, barely-changed y/y. Mostly because of an increased figure for barley shipments to China, the projection for global trade (Jul/Jun) is boosted by 1 mln t m/m, to 419 mln t (-2% y/y)," the report reads.

IGC July Grain Market Report

IGC analysts increased the global grain trade forecast by 1 mln t to 419 mln t (-2% y/y) compared with June, mainly due to higher barley shipments to China.

"Since larger shipments to some countries (especially in Near East Asia) may not entirely compensate for smaller import volumes by China (but with these still at historically high levels), global total grains trade is projected to contract by 7 mln t y/y, to 419 mln t," comment analysts.

In its July report, the USDA projects wheat production in Ukraine another 0.5 mln t higher in 2021/22, corn production projection was left unchanged.

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