January USDA: corn harvest in Ukraine expected 2 mln t above previous estimate

Corn production in Ukraine in the 2021/22 season is projected another 2 mln t higher, at 42 mln t, the USDA January report data shows. Corn exports from the country are also put 1 mln t higher, at 33.5 mln t.

Corn ending stocks projection for Ukraine remains unchanged, at 1.45 mln t.

The world corn production in 2021/22 is expected 1.77 mln t lower at 1,206.96 mln t (December proj.: 1,208.73 mln t). The global corn exports are projected at 204.2 mln t, 0.69 mln t down on the December report. Corn ending stocks are seen at 303.07 mln t, 2.47 mln t down mth/mth (December report: 305.54 mln t).

The US corn output proj. in 2021/22 is improved by the USDA to 383.94 mln t, 1.35 mln t above the December report data. Corn exports from the US are cut by 1.9 mln t, the country is expected to supply 61.6 mln t of grain to foreign markets. The US corn ending stocks should increase by 1.17 mln t to 39.11.

January’s 2021/22 world corn outlook is for shorter production in the key exporting countries, 243 mln t in the January report vs. 244.5 mln t in December.

The projection for the major corn exporters in 2021/22 (January vs. December report indicators, mln t):

 Country Production Exports Ending stocks
 Brazil 115 (-3) 43 6.23 (-2.7)
 Argentina 54 (-0.5) 39 2.13 (-0.5)
 Ukraine 42 (+2) 33.5 (+1) 1.45
 South Africa 17 3.2 3.33
 Russia 15 4.5 0.40 (+0.01)

China's corn 2021/22 projection in the January USDA report:

  • production: 272.55 mln t
  • import: 26 mln t
  • ending stocks: 210.24 mln t
  • exports: 0.02 mln t

Corn production in Ukraine totalled 40 mln t in the 2021/22 season. The average yield of the crop stood at 7.47 t/ha. Although, producers from different regions of the country report that at least 2% of new crop corn has not been collected.

Since the start of 2021/22, corn export from Ukraine has come to 11.7 mln t, 15% up YoY.


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