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IGC slashed its forecast for world soybean output in 2021/22
17 January 2022, 06:00
Considering the impact of the hot and dry weather on crop prospects in South America, IGC analysts cut their forecast for global soybean production in 2021/22 by 12 mln t compared to November projection, to 368 mln t, which is just slightly above the level of the previous season.
"The net reduction in world availabilities is reflected in a downgraded outlook for consumption – albeit still placed at a new high – and inventories. Much of the downward adjustment in expectations for stocks is due to the major exporters, namely Brazil and Argentina. Trade (Oct/Sep) is projected marginally down from before, at 167 mln t (+4%)," the IGC report reads.
With a bigger US harvest compensating for potentially smaller southern hemisphere crops, 2021/22 world soybean production is seen a fraction higher y/y, at 368 mln t, analysts project.
Related: La Niña poses risks for soybean and corn in Argentina
It is noted that amid further gains in Asia and the three majors, global uptake should reach a fresh peak, with increased demand partly linked to tight supplies of alternatives, namely rapeseed/canola. Stocks are predicted to fall by 6% y/y, to 52 mln t, including a reduction in exporters' reserves. Underpinned by Asian demand, trade is forecast to expand by 4% y/y, to 167 mln t.
Previously reported that soybean prices in Ukraine were in the range of UAH 15,800-17,500 a ton CPT-plant late last week.
Soybean production in Ukraine totalled 3.43 mln t using the average yield of 2.68 t/ha in the crop year 2021. Soybean plantings covered 1.28 mln ha.
