Refinitiv estimate of corn and wheat production in Ukraine reviewed on drought

The anticipated heat and dry conditions in some regions of Eurasia will significantly affect agricultural crops, a Refinitiv weather forecast by shows.

"Early this week, favourable cool weather with temperatures 1-3°C below normal is expected throughout Ukraine and central Russia. At the same time, temperatures are expected to be 3-6°C above normal in some parts of Northern Kazakhstan and in the border areas of Russia. Precipitation in central Russia and Kazakhstan is projected to be below normal. Precipitation in the Southern and Volga districts of Russia is forecast to be 40 mm above normal," the report reads.

Based on current and expected dry weather conditions, Refinitiv analysts have reduced the forecast of corn harvest in Ukraine by 2.5% to 37.7 mln t (31.0-41.9).

"Conditions in the north and central part of Ukraine are of particular concern. The assessment of corn yield has been reduced from 7.26 to 7.08 t/ha. The USDA in its July report forecasts corn production in Ukraine at 39 mln t on an area of 5.35 mln ha with an average yield of 7.29 t/ha," analysts say.

As reported, the current Refinitiv forecast of wheat harvest in Russia in 2020/21 is 78.8 mln t (73.6-88.3), 1% lower from the previous estimate, the forecast of wheat harvest in Ukraine is pegged at 26.5 mln t (25.3-29.4), 1% down too.Corn production in Ukraine and worldwide (click for full resolution)

Corn preserved its leading position in terms of shipment volume — 29.67 mln t accounting for a half (49.4%) of the total grain exports in 2019/20.


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