FAO improves world cereals trade forecast for 2021/22

FAO’s February forecast for world trade in cereals in 2021/22 stands at a record 481 mln t, up 1.0 mln t from December and an increase of 0.4% from the 2020/21 level.

At 193 mln t, global wheat trade in 2021/22 (July/June) is forecast to rise by 2.0% from 2020/21, driven by stronger import demand from the Near East following reduced harvests in several countries.

On the export side, record harvests are seen supporting record export forecasts for Argentina, Australia, and Ukraine in 2021/22, which, along with higher shipments from the European Union, more than compensate for a decline in sales from Canada, the Russian Federation, and the United States of America due to tighter availabilities.

Learn more: TOP 14 Wheat Exporters From Ukraine in 10M 2021

An export quota in the Russian Federation (starting from mid-February) is also seen capping its sales for the remainder of the season.

World trade in coarse grains in 2021/22 (July/June) is nearly unchanged this month and still points to a 1.5% contraction from the 2020/21 level, reaching 235 mln t. Making up the bulk of the decline, global corn trade is expected to fall in 2021/22, mostly reflecting weaker demand from China on account of a record production and larger imports of other feed grains.

Regarding exports, a decline in shipments from Brazil due to reduced production, and the United States of America resulting from tight domestic supply and increased competition from other exporters, are only partially offset by an increase in exports from Argentina and Ukraine.

So far 2021/22, staple grains export from Ukraine has increased by 32% YoY, to 39.2 mln t.

Grains export from Ukraine in 12M 2021 totalled 50.8 mln t. China, Egypt and Turkey are the largest markets in the period.

Grains production and export from Ukraine (click for higher resolution)

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