October USDA report may cut corn and soybean yield estimates

Prices in Chicago show further gains with funds’ long positions reaching very high levels, particularly in soybeans and corn, the Agritel consultancy reports.

"Yesterday [Oct. 7 – ed.] alone, the funds bought 15,000 lots of corn, 6,000 lots of soybeans and 12,000 lots of wheat. Wheat prices have reached their highest level since July 2015, soybean prices their highest since the end of April 2018, and corn prices their highest since the beginning of the year," the report reads.

Agritel analysts note that tomorrow's USDA report could show lower corn and soybean yields as a result of the water deficit.

The Global Agriculture Columnist at Thomson Reuters Karen Braun writes on Twitter that analysts expect a minor decline in the U.S. corn harvest on Friday, October 9, the same as the soybean crop.

"Corn yield is expected at 177.7 bsh/ac [11.95 t/ha – ed.], which would still be a record corn yield, but 51.6 [3.47 t/ha – ed.] on beans would fall short of the 2016 record," she comments.

2020/21 U.S. corn and soybean production estimates (click for higher resolution)

In soybean, coupled with Chinese demand, which remains strong, the delay in sowing in Brazil raises fears of a very tense situation on the physical market next January, Agritel adds. According to a Reuter’s survey of producers, the next harvest could be around 132 mln t, a record, as a result of the increase in acreage.

Previously reported that corn crop in Ukraine as of Oct. 5 reached 5.03 mln t using the avg. yield of 4.57 t/ha, soybean 1.3 mln t yielding 2.01 t/ha. New harvest campaign in the country is still on progress.

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